A recession is the optimal time to reinvent competitive advantage because the pressure of a feeble economy will separate the strong businesses from the weak ones, with the weak falling out of the game entirely. Your business will be strong if you have a plan of action based upon a little industry research, an analysis of what you have and what you want, and continuous monitoring of the results of your plan. This kind of innovation is not only a necessity right now, but it is an opportunity to improve the quality and efficiency in the way you do business.
The expected revenues and expenses for at least a year should be projected in the cash flow section of the Financial Plan. It's better to make conservative predictions rather than be too optimistic when it comes to cash flows. As part of this section, a break_even analysis is essential. This is the "amount of units sold or sales dollars necessary to recover all expenses associated with generating these sales." (NxLevel for Entrepreneurs, 2005) The formula for calculating the break_even quantity is Total Fixed Costs/(Price _ Average Variable Costs).
It may not be pleasant to imagine all the "what ifs," but doing it now and planning for those unexpected events will improve your company's chances of surviving a storm. For an excellent step_by_step guide on the details of developing a risk management plan, see the article "How to Develop a Risk Management Plan," by Charles Tremper at wikiHow.com.
Basically, consumers are hunkering down to limit spending, save money, conserve resources, and change the way they've been living. The major influence on the health of an economy is the psychological state of its consumers. When there exists a broad belief that spending beyond necessity is unwise, people will change their habits and as a result, some businesses will have to close their doors. The economy is molting into a new, leaner animal. Rather than react in desperation to avoid doom, firms should interact with the current situation with innovative and forward thinking actions.