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The New Basics of Business _ With unemployment continuing to rise, home prices falling due to a surplus of inventory, and small business lending at a standstill, this recession doesn't seem likely to end soon. The recovery will be slow and Americans will certainly not enjoy the prosperity of a few years ago for a long time to come. It's not just economists who think this way. "Half the population in [a] new ABC News poll thinks both job security and retirement prospects in the years ahead will remain worse than their pre_recession levels." ("Poll: Less Job Security is the 'New Normal,'" ABC News The Polling Unit, June 15, 2009, analysis by Gary Langer) This confidence, or lack thereof, is an integral part of an economic cycle. The analysis goes on to say, "Those diminished expectations _ plus the pain of the current downturn _ are fueling retrenchments in consumer behavior that could fundamentally reshape the economy."

The expected revenues and expenses for at least a year should be projected in the cash flow section of the Financial Plan. It's better to make conservative predictions rather than be too optimistic when it comes to cash flows. As part of this section, a break_even analysis is essential. This is the "amount of units sold or sales dollars necessary to recover all expenses associated with generating these sales." (NxLevel for Entrepreneurs, 2005) The formula for calculating the break_even quantity is Total Fixed Costs/(Price _ Average Variable Costs).

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It is usually recommended that these projected statements be on a monthly basis for at least the first twelve months or until the business is projected to be profitable and stable. Activity displayed beyond the monthly detail may be in summary form (such as quarterly or annually). The forecast period for most business plans is two to four years.

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